Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.8% vs 57.6%). Hertl wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.2% vs Karlsson 54.7% (+0.2%)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.6%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 75.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Hertl
Karlsson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (823)
58.5% (135)
-0.4%
Power Play
56.2% (265)
80.0% (5)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
44.4% (18)
+18.5%
On power play, Karlsson has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Hertl shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Hertl
Karlsson
Home
59.7% (561)
63.7% (91)
Away
55.9% (562)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Hertl
Karlsson
P1
51.6%
54.4%
P2
63.8%
66.7%
P3
58.6%
51.9%
OT
28.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
58.2%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%