Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 55.3%). Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.5% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.4%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 62.0%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 50.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Hertl
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Hertl
Karlsson
Last 10: Hertl 4-6 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
3
Hertl
Karlsson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
5
Hertl
Karlsson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Hertl
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (1,117)
55.3% (897)
-1.2%
Power Play
59.8% (296)
61.1% (113)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.8% (132)
-16.4%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Hertl shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Hertl
Karlsson
Home
54.3% (709)
58.6% (560)
Away
55.3% (736)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Hertl
Karlsson
P1
51.6%
55.8%
P2
53.6%
55.6%
P3
58.6%
55.7%
OT
45.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 04:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 08:21 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 1 | 05:15 | Offensive | William Karlsson |