Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hertl wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 56.8% vs Karlsson 55.6% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 59.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 59.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Hertl
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Hertl
Karlsson
Last 8: Hertl 5-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Hertl
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hertl
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
0
Hertl
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (718)
56.3% (739)
+0.7%
Power Play
64.9% (188)
58.6% (181)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (77)
47.2% (53)
-3.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Hertl shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Hertl
Karlsson
Home
59.2% (463)
56.5% (462)
Away
56.0% (520)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Hertl
Karlsson
P1
56.3%
57.1%
P2
55.4%
55.2%
P3
60.5%
56.7%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:42 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 05:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 05:53 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 11:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | William Karlsson |