Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.5% vs Girgensons 46.9% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.2%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 80.0%
Neutral zone
Girgensons 62.8%
Result
Zemgus Girgensons favored at 65.7%
34.3%
65.7%
Hertl
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hertl
Girgensons
Last 5: Hertl 2-3 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
1
Hertl
Girgensons
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
1
Hertl
Girgensons
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
1
Hertl
Girgensons
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (1,117)
45.3% (128)
+8.8%
Power Play
59.8% (296)
50.0% (4)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
45.3% (75)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Girgensons has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Hertl shoots left. Girgensons is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (110).
Home / Away
Hertl
Girgensons
Home
54.3% (709)
41.0% (100)
Away
55.3% (736)
49.5% (107)
By Period
Hertl
Girgensons
P1
51.6%
41.9%
P2
53.6%
53.9%
P3
58.6%
40.0%
OT
45.5%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.0%
32.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 07:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |