Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hertl wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.2% vs Girgensons 45.8% (+14.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 90.7%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 63.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 69.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Hertl
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hertl
Girgensons
Last 7: Hertl 4-3 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
1
Hertl
Girgensons
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hertl
Girgensons
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
1
Hertl
Girgensons
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (823)
43.2% (146)
+14.9%
Power Play
56.2% (265)
50.0% (2)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
44.8% (29)
+18.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Hertl shoots left. Girgensons is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
Hertl
Girgensons
Home
59.7% (561)
40.3% (72)
Away
55.9% (562)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Hertl
Girgensons
P1
51.6%
43.8%
P2
63.8%
44.6%
P3
58.6%
42.5%
Final 5 min
58.2%
34.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
43.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |