Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.4% vs 42.2%). Look for McMichael on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Novak 43.5% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 64.1%
Defensive zone
McMichael 62.8%
Neutral zone
Novak 51.0%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
McMichael
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McMichael
Novak
Last 6: McMichael 4-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
1
McMichael
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
0
McMichael
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
McMichael
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
40.7% (460)
+2.7%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
61.5% (39)
-20.8%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
0.0% (1)
+30.8%
On penalty kill, McMichael has a +30.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
McMichael shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
McMichael
Novak
Home
42.1% (444)
47.0% (236)
Away
42.8% (428)
37.9% (264)
By Period
McMichael
Novak
P1
42.5%
43.1%
P2
41.9%
43.1%
P3
42.5%
40.1%
Final 5 min
39.7%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 14:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 04:14 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |