Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Novak wins 43.9% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 45.6% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 79.0%
Defensive zone
Novak 76.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 77.1%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Novak
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Novak
Karlsson
Last 8: Novak 2-6 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Novak
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Novak
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Novak
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (384)
55.3% (897)
-11.5%
Power Play
58.8% (17)
61.1% (113)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
50.8% (132)
+49.2%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +49.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Novak shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Novak
Karlsson
Home
46.5% (202)
58.6% (560)
Away
42.5% (200)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Novak
Karlsson
P1
49.2%
55.8%
P2
44.2%
55.6%
P3
40.0%
55.7%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.2%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2023 | OT | 02:53 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 08:12 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:55 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 16:29 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 15:55 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 07:58 | Offensive | William Karlsson |