Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Novak wins 42.4% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.5% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 76.5%
Defensive zone
Novak 68.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 76.1%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Novak
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Novak
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Novak
Karlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Novak
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (460)
56.3% (739)
-15.6%
Power Play
61.5% (39)
58.6% (181)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
47.2% (53)
-47.2%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +47.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Novak shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Novak
Karlsson
Home
47.0% (236)
56.5% (462)
Away
37.9% (264)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Novak
Karlsson
P1
43.1%
57.1%
P2
43.1%
55.2%
P3
40.1%
56.7%
Final 5 min
38.6%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 16:43 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | William Karlsson |