Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 52.5% vs Zegras 41.5% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 67.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 98.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 95.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 92.7%
92.7%
7.3%
Sturm
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Sturm
Zegras
Last 8: Sturm 7-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
0
Sturm
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (480)
39.4% (510)
+14.6%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
47.1% (34)
-18.5%
On power play, Zegras has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Sturm shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Sturm
Zegras
Home
54.0% (287)
42.3% (272)
Away
52.0% (302)
37.5% (272)
By Period
Sturm
Zegras
P1
53.5%
37.6%
P2
51.0%
41.5%
P3
55.1%
40.8%
OT
20.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 1 | 09:57 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 1 | 06:42 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 2 | 17:35 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 1 | 09:53 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |