Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lafferty wins 40.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 43.5% vs Zegras 41.5% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 87.6%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 78.6%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 58.6%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Lafferty
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Lafferty
Zegras
Last 6: Lafferty 3-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
2
Lafferty
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
3
1
Lafferty
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (232)
39.4% (510)
+1.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
47.1% (34)
+52.9%
On power play, Lafferty has a +52.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Lafferty is 40.4% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Lafferty shoots right. Zegras is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (191).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Zegras
Home
38.2% (123)
42.3% (272)
Away
43.6% (140)
37.5% (272)
By Period
Lafferty
Zegras
P1
41.6%
37.6%
P2
36.7%
41.5%
P3
45.5%
40.8%
Final 5 min
44.2%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
41.1%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:06 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:40 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:34 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |