Scouting Report
Tyson Jost holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Zegras wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 39.2% vs Jost 40.5% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 76.4%
Defensive zone
Jost 82.6%
Neutral zone
Jost 54.4%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Zegras
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Zegras
Jost
Last 8: Zegras 4-4 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jost
1
2
Zegras
Jost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
Zegras
Jost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
3
1
Zegras
Jost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (1,669)
41.0% (2,014)
-2.4%
Power Play
38.5% (148)
34.2% (73)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
35.3% (255)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Jost has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Zegras shoots left. Jost is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,466).
Home / Away
Zegras
Jost
Home
39.9% (882)
41.9% (1,238)
Away
37.4% (942)
38.1% (1,104)
By Period
Zegras
Jost
P1
40.2%
38.5%
P2
38.0%
41.2%
P3
37.7%
40.9%
OT
31.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
40.3%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:21 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 12:02 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 17:39 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |