Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.7% vs Johnson 48.8% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 78.4%
Defensive zone
Johnson 73.5%
Neutral zone
Johnson 78.4%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 77.4%
22.6%
77.4%
Staal
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Staal
Johnson
Last 5: Staal 1-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
3
Staal
Johnson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Staal
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (769)
49.5% (828)
+7.1%
Power Play
60.2% (98)
54.9% (142)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
27.8% (18)
36.8% (133)
-9.0%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Staal is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (366).
Staal shoots left. Johnson is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (728).
Home / Away
Staal
Johnson
Home
57.8% (510)
50.7% (564)
Away
54.4% (375)
46.6% (539)
By Period
Staal
Johnson
P1
55.1%
51.2%
P2
56.8%
47.5%
P3
57.1%
48.4%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
56.4%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2015 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |