Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Seguin 55.4% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 64.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 52.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 53.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Matthews
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Matthews
Seguin
Last 5: Matthews 1-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
3
Matthews
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
56.9% (478)
-3.5%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
57.4% (54)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
51.3% (76)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Seguin is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
Matthews
Seguin
Home
56.5% (703)
57.4% (317)
Away
50.0% (616)
55.0% (291)
By Period
Matthews
Seguin
P1
52.1%
50.3%
P2
54.0%
60.4%
P3
54.0%
58.0%
OT
57.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.6%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
53.4%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 04:31 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 17:55 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 16:58 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |