Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.7% vs Karlsson 53.6% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 17-13 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Karlsson 56.6%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 53.0%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 56.1%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Hertl
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
17
(30 meetings)
13
17
Hertl
Karlsson
Last 10: Hertl 4-6 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Hertl
Karlsson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
2
7
Hertl
Karlsson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
5
Hertl
Karlsson
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (648)
55.5% (659)
+0.2%
Power Play
60.4% (149)
59.3% (172)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (83)
39.1% (128)
+3.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Hertl shoots left. Karlsson is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (671).
Home / Away
Hertl
Karlsson
Home
58.3% (391)
53.9% (488)
Away
52.8% (489)
54.1% (471)
By Period
Hertl
Karlsson
P1
58.9%
50.5%
P2
51.5%
54.8%
P3
54.3%
56.3%
OT
76.9%
53.3%
Final 5 min
54.3%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 06:19 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 15:20 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 15:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 00:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 2 | 19:10 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 2 | 16:50 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 06:20 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 06:03 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 03:57 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 2 | 04:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 1 | 08:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 3 | 13:40 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 3 | 12:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 17:27 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 15:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | William Karlsson |