Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Karlsson wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Karlsson 54.9% vs Gourde 49.7% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Karlsson 85.7%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 87.6%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 79.8%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 86.0%
86.0%
14.0%
Karlsson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Karlsson
Gourde
Last 10: Karlsson 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
6
3
Karlsson
Gourde
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
3
2
Karlsson
Gourde
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
0
Karlsson
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Karlsson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (897)
49.1% (847)
+6.2%
Power Play
61.1% (113)
79.5% (44)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (132)
39.5% (81)
+11.3%
On power play, Gourde has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Karlsson shoots left. Gourde is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Karlsson
Gourde
Home
58.6% (560)
50.1% (491)
Away
52.2% (582)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Karlsson
Gourde
P1
55.8%
54.7%
P2
55.6%
45.0%
P3
55.7%
49.4%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.4%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 10:26 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 15:19 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 05:10 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 06:05 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 06:18 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 06:02 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:40 | Offensive | William Karlsson |