Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Karlsson wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Karlsson 55.6% vs Gourde 48.0% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Karlsson 80.0%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 52.0%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 62.9%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
Karlsson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Karlsson
Gourde
Last 10: Karlsson 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
6
4
Karlsson
Gourde
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Karlsson
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Karlsson
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Karlsson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (739)
48.0% (914)
+8.3%
Power Play
58.6% (181)
54.2% (48)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (53)
43.9% (123)
+3.3%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Karlsson shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Karlsson
Gourde
Home
56.5% (462)
50.2% (512)
Away
56.0% (511)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Karlsson
Gourde
P1
57.1%
50.0%
P2
55.2%
45.3%
P3
56.7%
48.6%
OT
50.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:30 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:19 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 3 | 05:02 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 2 | 05:28 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 2 | 05:17 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 1 | 09:33 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 1 | 07:04 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 1 | 04:31 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 18:34 | Neutral | William Karlsson |