Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Karlsson wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Karlsson 57.1% vs Gourde 49.7% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 94.6%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 75.6%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 80.6%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 89.9%
89.9%
10.1%
Karlsson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Karlsson
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
2
0
Karlsson
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
0
Karlsson
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Karlsson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (597)
51.2% (469)
+7.4%
Power Play
57.9% (57)
42.9% (21)
+15.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (52)
37.5% (48)
+14.4%
On power play, Karlsson has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Karlsson shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Karlsson
Gourde
Home
59.6% (344)
47.8% (301)
Away
56.6% (362)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Karlsson
Gourde
P1
53.1%
47.3%
P2
62.1%
53.4%
P3
60.1%
48.6%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
61.6%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 19:28 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 2 | 02:24 | Neutral | William Karlsson |