Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.5% vs 48.7%). Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 49.5% vs Gourde 48.9% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.0%
Defensive zone
Gourde 53.3%
Neutral zone
Gourde 53.9%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Larkin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Larkin
Gourde
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
3
6
Larkin
Gourde
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
3
4
Larkin
Gourde
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (562)
49.0% (557)
+0.5%
Power Play
51.5% (134)
65.9% (44)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (34)
29.2% (48)
+12.0%
On power play, Gourde has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Larkin is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Larkin shoots left. Gourde is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Larkin
Gourde
Home
48.5% (388)
49.0% (314)
Away
50.6% (342)
48.4% (335)
By Period
Larkin
Gourde
P1
52.1%
54.0%
P2
46.9%
44.6%
P3
49.2%
48.4%
OT
55.6%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.5%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2021 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 05:30 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 07:06 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 06:59 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 17:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 09:18 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 1 | 14:45 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 3 | 10:52 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 3 | 16:22 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 2 | 10:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 1 | 12:31 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |