Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.2%). Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Gourde 48.2% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 19-10 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 56.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 62.9%
Neutral zone
Gourde 62.8%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 61.1%
38.9%
61.1%
Hayes
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
10
(29 meetings)
19
10
Hayes
Gourde
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
3
Hayes
Gourde
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
7
3
Hayes
Gourde
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
7
4
Hayes
Gourde
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
48.4% (4,954)
-0.9%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
57.4% (376)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
39.9% (554)
+5.4%
On power play, Gourde has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Hayes shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Hayes
Gourde
Home
48.1% (3,982)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Hayes
Gourde
P1
47.5%
49.9%
P2
47.6%
47.4%
P3
47.9%
47.5%
OT
54.1%
37.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 05:24 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:30 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:24 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:27 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 19:25 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:27 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 06:34 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:09 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:51 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |