Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs Larkin 55.0% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.6%
Defensive zone
Henrique 59.4%
Neutral zone
Henrique 56.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Henrique
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Henrique
Larkin
Last 10: Henrique 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
4
3
Henrique
Larkin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Henrique
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
55.9% (943)
-0.5%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
57.4% (244)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
46.2% (106)
+1.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Henrique is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Henrique shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Henrique
Larkin
Home
56.4% (553)
56.0% (654)
Away
50.0% (530)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Henrique
Larkin
P1
51.7%
54.4%
P2
55.5%
55.9%
P3
52.5%
55.2%
OT
66.7%
64.0%
Final 5 min
55.1%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 3 | 12:35 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:15 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 09:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 12:19 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |