Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Henrique wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs Larkin 54.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 70.5%
Defensive zone
Henrique 62.8%
Neutral zone
Henrique 52.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Henrique
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Henrique
Larkin
Last 7: Henrique 3-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
4
Henrique
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
52.6% (1,117)
+4.9%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
60.7% (305)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
55.9% (177)
-10.4%
On power play, Henrique has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Henrique is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Henrique shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Henrique
Larkin
Home
56.4% (518)
54.7% (783)
Away
54.9% (492)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Henrique
Larkin
P1
56.0%
55.9%
P2
55.2%
56.1%
P3
56.2%
51.1%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:28 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 07:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:10 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 14:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |