Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (55% H2H, 29 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Larkin 52.7% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 35-29 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 51.6%
Defensive zone
Henrique 58.2%
Neutral zone
Henrique 56.4%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Henrique
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
35
(64 meetings)
29
35
Henrique
Larkin
Last 10: Henrique 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
16
Henrique
Larkin
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
11
Henrique
Larkin
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
8
Henrique
Larkin
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (9,527)
51.7% (9,019)
-0.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,762)
58.5% (2,125)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,822)
50.2% (1,122)
-4.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,505).
Henrique shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Henrique
Larkin
Home
52.5% (6,418)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
48.8% (6,716)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Henrique
Larkin
P1
50.6%
52.7%
P2
51.4%
53.1%
P3
50.2%
52.1%
OT
40.6%
58.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
50.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:28 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 07:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:10 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 14:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 3 | 12:35 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:15 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 09:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 12:19 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |