Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs Evans 52.0% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 68.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 71.6%
Neutral zone
Henrique 55.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Henrique
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Henrique
Evans
Last 6: Henrique 2-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
3
Henrique
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Henrique
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
54.4% (807)
+1.0%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
55.0% (20)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
46.1% (310)
+1.4%
On power play, Evans has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Henrique is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Henrique shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Home / Away
Henrique
Evans
Home
56.4% (553)
53.7% (581)
Away
50.0% (530)
50.5% (556)
By Period
Henrique
Evans
P1
51.7%
54.6%
P2
55.5%
50.0%
P3
52.5%
52.3%
OT
66.7%
46.7%
Final 5 min
55.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 18:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:17 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 07:34 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |