Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs Evans 55.4% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 60.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 53.6%
Neutral zone
Henrique 52.8%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Henrique
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Henrique
Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
2
Henrique
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
56.2% (477)
-0.1%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
70.0% (10)
-22.4%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
55.4% (204)
-4.6%
On power play, Evans has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Henrique is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (170).
Henrique shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Home / Away
Henrique
Evans
Home
53.5% (215)
55.3% (374)
Away
55.2% (306)
57.1% (317)
By Period
Henrique
Evans
P1
57.7%
58.5%
P2
53.8%
55.7%
P3
51.6%
53.9%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:59 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |