Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.9%). Henrique wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs Staal 54.6% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 65.1%
Defensive zone
Henrique 58.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 51.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Henrique
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Henrique
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Henrique
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
56.1% (955)
+0.0%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
66.9% (142)
-19.3%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
43.0% (242)
+7.8%
On power play, Staal has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Henrique is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Henrique shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Henrique
Staal
Home
53.5% (215)
55.4% (663)
Away
55.2% (306)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Henrique
Staal
P1
57.7%
55.1%
P2
53.8%
54.7%
P3
51.6%
53.9%
OT
100.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:20 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 07:54 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |