Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Henrique wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 54.6% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 57.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 71.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 61.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Henrique
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Henrique
O'Reilly
Last 7: Henrique 4-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Henrique
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (349)
56.6% (1,064)
-2.2%
Power Play
59.3% (135)
60.4% (260)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (13)
54.0% (261)
-7.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Henrique is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (298).
Henrique shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Henrique
O'Reilly
Home
55.3% (237)
54.9% (801)
Away
55.8% (260)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Henrique
O'Reilly
P1
53.5%
58.0%
P2
64.8%
56.7%
P3
47.3%
55.4%
OT
58.3%
64.7%
Final 5 min
54.7%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 16:55 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 2 | 19:36 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 1 | 19:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 1 | 12:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |