Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.6% vs 55.7%). Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 73.4%
Defensive zone
Henrique 78.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.8%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Henrique
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Henrique
O'Reilly
Last 7: Henrique 5-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Henrique
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
1
Henrique
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
56.2% (983)
+1.3%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
55.5% (254)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
52.0% (102)
-6.5%
On power play, Henrique has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Henrique is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Henrique shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Henrique
O'Reilly
Home
56.4% (518)
56.2% (697)
Away
54.9% (492)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Henrique
O'Reilly
P1
56.0%
54.5%
P2
55.2%
55.5%
P3
56.2%
57.1%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 04:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 05:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |