Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 55.4%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 74.8%
Defensive zone
Henrique 70.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Henrique
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Henrique
O'Reilly
Last 6: Henrique 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Henrique
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
55.4% (826)
+0.7%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
57.9% (221)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
50.4% (129)
+0.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Henrique is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Henrique shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Henrique
O'Reilly
Home
53.5% (215)
55.8% (579)
Away
55.2% (306)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Henrique
O'Reilly
P1
57.7%
57.7%
P2
53.8%
54.8%
P3
51.6%
54.3%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 05:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |