Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 79 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 108-98 in 206 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 63.5%
Defensive zone
Henrique 61.7%
Neutral zone
Henrique 62.0%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Henrique
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
98
-
108
(206 meetings)
98
108
Henrique
O'Reilly
Last 10: Henrique 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
41
40
Henrique
O'Reilly
81 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
35
44
Henrique
O'Reilly
79 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
22
24
Henrique
O'Reilly
46 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (9,527)
56.2% (15,260)
-5.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,762)
58.8% (3,445)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,822)
51.4% (2,811)
-5.2%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,505).
Henrique shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Henrique
O'Reilly
Home
52.5% (6,418)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
48.8% (6,716)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Henrique
O'Reilly
P1
50.6%
55.6%
P2
51.4%
57.0%
P3
50.2%
55.1%
OT
40.6%
62.2%
Final 5 min
50.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
50.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 05:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 04:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 05:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 15:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 09:33 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 02:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |