Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Mercer 45.3% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 86.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 63.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 69.7%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Lowry
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Lowry
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Lowry
Mercer
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Lowry
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
43.2% (148)
+9.5%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
40.0% (10)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
28.6% (7)
+11.4%
On power play, Lowry has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Lowry is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (430).
Lowry shoots left. Mercer is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (122).
Home / Away
Lowry
Mercer
Home
52.4% (597)
39.0% (82)
Away
48.4% (583)
45.8% (83)
By Period
Lowry
Mercer
P1
48.5%
45.5%
P2
52.2%
44.0%
P3
50.5%
36.7%
Final 5 min
49.4%
36.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 10:34 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 04:18 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |