Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Mercer 43.3% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 76.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 80.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 53.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Lowry
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Lowry
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Lowry
Mercer
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
41.0% (212)
+12.7%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
35.7% (14)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
36.4% (11)
+6.3%
On power play, Lowry has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Lowry is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (348).
Lowry shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Lowry
Mercer
Home
53.0% (583)
45.2% (126)
Away
50.6% (605)
35.1% (111)
By Period
Lowry
Mercer
P1
52.1%
34.5%
P2
51.8%
43.4%
P3
52.3%
45.8%
OT
25.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.9%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:02 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:52 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |