Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Mercer 41.8% (+14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 52.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 72.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Lowry
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Lowry
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
38.8% (263)
+16.6%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
35.3% (17)
+48.0%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
50.0% (10)
-9.6%
On power play, Lowry has a +48.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Lowry is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Lowry shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Lowry
Mercer
Home
54.5% (402)
34.7% (144)
Away
53.3% (368)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Lowry
Mercer
P1
52.4%
32.7%
P2
56.0%
42.7%
P3
54.2%
42.2%
Final 5 min
58.1%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 09:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |