Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Mercer 39.9% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Lowry 64.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 97.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 89.9%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 88.2%
88.2%
11.8%
Lowry
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Lowry
Mercer
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
2
Lowry
Mercer
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
6
1
Lowry
Mercer
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
2
Lowry
Mercer
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
39.1% (1,412)
+13.7%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
41.1% (90)
+16.0%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
40.0% (45)
+4.9%
On power play, Lowry has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (3,984).
Lowry shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Home / Away
Lowry
Mercer
Home
53.5% (5,893)
40.0% (755)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
38.5% (792)
By Period
Lowry
Mercer
P1
51.5%
38.2%
P2
51.8%
39.2%
P3
51.4%
41.1%
OT
46.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.9%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 09:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:02 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:52 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:54 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 12:02 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:15 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 10:34 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 04:18 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 3 | 11:58 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 15:36 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 13:47 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 09:42 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |