Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 29 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Staal 55.3% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 46-39 in 85 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 52.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 71.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 62.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Lowry
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
46
(85 meetings)
39
46
Lowry
Staal
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
9
20
Lowry
Staal
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
11
5
Lowry
Staal
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
19
21
Lowry
Staal
40 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
55.9% (14,620)
-3.1%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
62.7% (1,745)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
48.0% (2,896)
-3.1%
On power play, Staal has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Home / Away
Lowry
Staal
Home
53.5% (5,893)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
Lowry
Staal
P1
51.5%
55.2%
P2
51.8%
55.9%
P3
51.4%
54.9%
OT
46.3%
56.2%
Final 5 min
52.9%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 12:56 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:30 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:27 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 14:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 17:19 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 09:19 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 2 | 07:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:38 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:12 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:13 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |