Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.4% vs 50.9%). Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Backlund 50.8% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 62.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 70.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 53.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Lowry
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Backlund
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Lowry
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
51.9% (1,083)
+0.8%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
51.7% (120)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
44.3% (183)
-4.3%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Home / Away
Lowry
Backlund
Home
52.4% (597)
51.9% (673)
Away
48.4% (583)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Lowry
Backlund
P1
48.5%
51.4%
P2
52.2%
50.5%
P3
50.5%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
35.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2023 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 17:17 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 17:56 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:22 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |