Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 80.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 68.6%
Neutral zone
Lowry 54.3%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Lowry
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Bjugstad
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Lowry
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
46.7% (398)
+7.0%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
51.6% (31)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
62.5% (8)
-19.8%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Lowry is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (348).
Lowry shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Lowry
Bjugstad
Home
53.0% (583)
47.3% (220)
Away
50.6% (605)
47.5% (217)
By Period
Lowry
Bjugstad
P1
52.1%
46.1%
P2
51.8%
46.3%
P3
52.3%
50.4%
Final 5 min
53.9%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:16 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:18 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |