Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Novak 43.5% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 59.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 92.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 74.5%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Lowry
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Lowry
Novak
Last 8: Lowry 5-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
2
Lowry
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
40.7% (460)
+8.6%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
61.5% (39)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
0.0% (1)
+42.6%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Lowry
Novak
Home
50.2% (671)
47.0% (236)
Away
47.8% (709)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Lowry
Novak
P1
48.4%
43.1%
P2
50.1%
43.1%
P3
47.8%
40.1%
Final 5 min
43.8%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 07:34 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 19:23 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 06:51 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:15 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 01:26 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 02:02 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |