Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Novak 43.3% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 21-12 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Lowry 63.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 98.6%
Neutral zone
Lowry 94.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Lowry
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
12
(33 meetings)
21
12
Lowry
Novak
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Lowry
Novak
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
7
1
Lowry
Novak
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
8
5
Lowry
Novak
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
42.1% (1,539)
+10.7%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
51.9% (133)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
50.0% (2)
-5.1%
On even strength, Lowry has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Lowry
Novak
Home
53.5% (5,893)
45.3% (814)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Lowry
Novak
P1
51.5%
43.9%
P2
51.8%
42.8%
P3
51.4%
41.7%
OT
46.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.9%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 15:49 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:36 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:20 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:51 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:46 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 13:07 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 05:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 07:34 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 19:23 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 06:51 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:15 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 01:26 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 02:02 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |