Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Novak 43.4% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 50.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 95.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 88.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 83.2%
83.2%
16.8%
Lowry
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Lowry
Novak
Last 5: Lowry 4-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
41.4% (379)
+14.0%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
46.9% (32)
+36.4%
On power play, Lowry has a +36.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Lowry
Novak
Home
54.5% (402)
42.6% (195)
Away
53.3% (368)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Lowry
Novak
P1
52.4%
42.4%
P2
56.0%
39.2%
P3
54.2%
44.7%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.1%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 15:49 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:40 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:36 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |