Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Novak 45.0% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 79.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 83.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.3%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Lowry
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Lowry
Novak
Last 7: Lowry 3-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
4
Lowry
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
42.9% (198)
+10.8%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
40.9% (22)
+19.8%
On power play, Lowry has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Novak is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Lowry
Novak
Home
53.0% (583)
40.9% (110)
Away
50.6% (605)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Lowry
Novak
P1
52.1%
39.1%
P2
51.8%
43.9%
P3
52.3%
44.9%
OT
25.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.9%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:20 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:51 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:46 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 13:07 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 05:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |