Scouting Report
Adrian Kempe holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Kempe wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.7% vs Zegras 35.4% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 64.4%
Defensive zone
Zegras 58.4%
Neutral zone
Zegras 58.9%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Kempe
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Kempe
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Kempe
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
38.2% (102)
29.6% (230)
+8.6%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
32.1% (56)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
100.0% (1)
-75.0%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +75.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Kempe is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kempe shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Kempe
Zegras
Home
36.4% (66)
30.6% (147)
Away
35.5% (76)
30.0% (140)
By Period
Kempe
Zegras
P1
37.3%
33.0%
P2
36.7%
31.7%
P3
31.4%
25.6%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.0%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.9%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |