Scouting Report
Adrian Kempe holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Kempe wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs Zegras 39.2% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 50.0%
Defensive zone
Kempe 60.8%
Neutral zone
Kempe 50.7%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Kempe
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kempe
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
1
0
Kempe
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Kempe
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,881)
38.6% (1,669)
+1.6%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
38.5% (148)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
28.6% (7)
+14.0%
On penalty kill, Kempe has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Kempe is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,356).
Kempe shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Home / Away
Kempe
Zegras
Home
42.4% (1,045)
39.9% (882)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Kempe
Zegras
P1
39.5%
40.2%
P2
40.1%
38.0%
P3
42.2%
37.7%
OT
37.0%
31.6%
Final 5 min
37.2%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 15:56 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |