Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Hertl 57.2% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 66.6%
Defensive zone
Turcotte 79.1%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 71.1%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
Turcotte
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Turcotte
Hertl
Last 5: Turcotte 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Turcotte
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Turcotte
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Turcotte
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
58.1% (823)
-4.5%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
56.2% (265)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
62.9% (35)
+37.1%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Hertl
Home
53.2% (263)
59.7% (561)
Away
55.0% (209)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Turcotte
Hertl
P1
57.2%
51.6%
P2
59.6%
63.8%
P3
44.1%
58.6%
Final 5 min
52.6%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 11:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 02:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 13:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 15:07 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |