Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 51.3% vs Hertl 54.2% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 70.4%
Defensive zone
Turcotte 71.2%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 71.9%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Turcotte
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Turcotte
Hertl
Last 6: Turcotte 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Turcotte
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Turcotte
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Turcotte
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (656)
53.8% (8,268)
-2.7%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
59.3% (1,975)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
46.3% (806)
+53.7%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +53.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Turcotte is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Turcotte shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Hertl
Home
51.7% (346)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
51.2% (332)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Turcotte
Hertl
P1
53.8%
53.6%
P2
53.8%
54.1%
P3
46.5%
55.3%
Final 5 min
47.6%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 11:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 02:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 13:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 15:07 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 19:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |