Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 50.6% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Copp 50.9%
Defensive zone
Copp 71.9%
Neutral zone
Copp 53.2%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Copp
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Copp
O'Reilly
Last 5: Copp 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Copp
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Copp
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (559)
56.2% (983)
-5.0%
Power Play
46.2% (26)
55.5% (254)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
52.0% (102)
-4.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Copp is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (415).
Copp shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Copp
O'Reilly
Home
52.0% (348)
56.2% (697)
Away
49.1% (279)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Copp
O'Reilly
P1
48.4%
54.5%
P2
50.2%
55.5%
P3
53.4%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
50.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 03:57 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 07:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |