Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 51.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 27-23 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Copp 63.3%
Defensive zone
Copp 66.9%
Neutral zone
Copp 65.3%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Copp
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
27
(50 meetings)
23
27
Copp
O'Reilly
Last 10: Copp 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
10
Copp
O'Reilly
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Copp
13
10
Copp
O'Reilly
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
7
Copp
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (5,453)
56.2% (15,260)
-3.8%
Power Play
58.1% (503)
58.8% (3,445)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (931)
51.4% (2,811)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Copp is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,419).
Copp shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Copp
O'Reilly
Home
52.7% (3,528)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
51.0% (3,359)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Copp
O'Reilly
P1
53.0%
55.6%
P2
51.4%
57.0%
P3
51.4%
55.1%
OT
39.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
51.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
51.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:00 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 02:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 03:57 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 07:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 10:05 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |