Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 53.5% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Copp 53.8%
Defensive zone
Copp 54.9%
Neutral zone
Copp 54.5%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Copp
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Copp
O'Reilly
Last 9: Copp 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Copp
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
4
Copp
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (693)
55.4% (826)
-1.1%
Power Play
57.4% (68)
57.9% (221)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (57)
50.4% (129)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Copp is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Copp shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Copp
O'Reilly
Home
54.4% (408)
55.8% (579)
Away
53.4% (410)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Copp
O'Reilly
P1
53.3%
57.7%
P2
54.1%
54.8%
P3
54.9%
54.3%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
53.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:00 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 02:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |