Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.4% vs Tavares 57.8% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 55.7%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 75.6%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 61.2%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Cirelli
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Cirelli
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Cirelli
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Cirelli
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (468)
59.0% (691)
-9.4%
Power Play
69.9% (73)
57.2% (173)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (169)
63.6% (11)
-28.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Cirelli is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (450).
Cirelli shoots left. Tavares is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Tavares
Home
54.7% (316)
58.0% (500)
Away
42.9% (394)
59.7% (375)
By Period
Cirelli
Tavares
P1
49.4%
59.5%
P2
48.9%
58.5%
P3
46.9%
58.2%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
56.0%▲
45.0%
48.2%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 09:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |