Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.1% vs Tavares 57.2% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 61.8%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 69.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 53.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Cirelli
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Cirelli
Tavares
Last 10: Cirelli 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
4
Cirelli
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
1
Cirelli
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (613)
58.0% (914)
-7.6%
Power Play
69.9% (83)
57.0% (235)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (208)
57.9% (19)
-21.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Cirelli is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Cirelli shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Tavares
Home
54.2% (395)
57.8% (614)
Away
45.0% (509)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Cirelli
Tavares
P1
50.8%
58.0%
P2
50.0%
56.9%
P3
46.6%
58.4%
OT
33.3%
57.7%
Final 5 min
53.4%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:25 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 05:36 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 09:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |