Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.4% vs Hayes 47.7% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 16-13 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 51.9%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 58.7%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 58.1%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Cirelli
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
13
(29 meetings)
16
13
Cirelli
Hayes
Last 10: Cirelli 4-6 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
7
Cirelli
Hayes
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
5
4
Cirelli
Hayes
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
7
2
Cirelli
Hayes
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (5,684)
47.5% (6,708)
+2.3%
Power Play
56.9% (571)
51.7% (702)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,196)
45.3% (697)
-1.5%
On power play, Cirelli has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,600).
Cirelli shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hayes
Home
49.6% (3,763)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Cirelli
Hayes
P1
49.9%
47.5%
P2
48.8%
47.6%
P3
49.2%
47.9%
OT
51.6%
54.1%
Final 5 min
50.9%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 06:31 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:38 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:50 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 5, 2019 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 5, 2019 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 5, 2019 | 1 | 04:03 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 11:52 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 06:47 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 2 | 00:21 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |